Reading the newspapers, weeklies, blogs and the rest of the media, it's become clear that no one is too excited one way or the other about the GOP field of ’08 presidential candidates. It’s true that the NYT has had a few charitable features on Mit Romney and Rudolph Giuilani, and of course there’s the seemingly perennial piece on John McCain’s inability to lock up the nomination, but otherwise the papers are relatively quiet. Think of the amount of ink spilled over Obama’s announcement to run, the question of his essential blackness or lack thereof, of Hilary’s refusal to renounce her vote on the Iraq war, or the possibility that Gore may enter the race.
Where’s the comparable media frenzy over a possible late entry by Newt Gingrich? Compared to the hushed, fingers-crossed intensity of coverage surrounding Gore’s possible entrance into the Democratic field, Newt’s waiting in the wings seems especially ho-hum. And even though McCain can command a large audience as he did recently on his Iowa bus tour (he provided free breakfasts) there’s no media electricity surrounding his campaign the way there is around say, the possibility of the first woman president, or the first African-American president. As a magazine editor what would make for a more compelling cover story, Hilary’s historic bid for the presidency or John McCain’s age? When McCain speaks after a speech or at a press conference the first question out of every reporter’s mouth is, “Are you too old to run?” Exactly.
But it’s not just the press that’s down on the Republicans lackluster stable of candidates. When Republicans themselves are polled about their options they to seem less than impressed with their choices. Much has been written about the Evangelical right being frustrated by the lack of a clear values-oriented and avowedly Christian candidate. Romney doesn’t count apparently as there is a longstanding animosity between Protestant Evangelicals and Mormons and there don’t appear to be any serious Evangelical stalwarts waiting out the early campaign skirmishes either. There is a colossal sense of loss and opportunities missed on the right, of having once had the reins firmly in hand only to have them slip away amidst scandal, war, and political hubris. There is no Reaganesque political savior poised to return the Republican party to power and prominence. Instead, there’s Sam Brownback.
Aside from Giuliani still coasting off his 9/11 performance and his general good nature, where are the Republican superstars? Say what you will about W’s incompetence, he was generally likable and straight-forward on the campaign trail and a lot of voters warmed to him. He had name recognition and a certain conservative pedigree vouchsafed by his running mate Dick Cheney. Bush galvanized the Republican base in ’04, at least in part, by opposing gay marriage and continuing to push for the repeal of Roe v. Wade. With Giuliani decidedly moderate on the aforementioned issues and with his long list of marital problems can even he be taken as a serious threat to Hilary or Obama? Indeed, the entire Republican field is vulnerable on a number of ‘values’ issues, particularly the sanctity of marriage (almost all of them have had messy divorces). Can any of them be serious contenders? As of now, no.
Whoever can mobilize their base and appeal to the center (not two mutually exclusive goals) will win the next election, but the Republicans, shattered by miscalculation in Iraq, will have trouble getting their base excited by McCain’s clumsy triangulation, Gingrich’s moral hypocrisy, Romney’s fringe faith, or Giuliani’s liberal attitude toward gays and divorce. Even a mediocre political operative working in Clinton or Edwards’ war room would have a field day with the Republican candidates ethical and personal vulnerabilities.
Are the GOP hopes of holding onto the executive naïve? Much can change over the next two years, and if one thing is constant in the political landscape, it’s the Democrats inability to identify and exploit their opponent’s weaknesses. If anyone can lose the ’08 election with the outgoing Republican president one of the least liked presidents in history, an election preceded by a Democratic sweep of the House and Senate, it’s the same Democrats who nominated Dukakis and Kerry. Still, the Republican field has rarely been this thin while the Democrats have never looked so strong. In the face of Hilary’s prodigious fund raising apparatus, Obama’s singular charisma, Edwards’ commitment to the working poor and Gore’s passion for the environment and his own reinvention, the Republicans are in trouble. As Chuck Schumer said of the Democrats on Charlie Rose’s program in February, “We want to win this time. We really want to win.”
The generally weak Republican candidates pose a problem for the conventional wisdom regarding both Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama, candidates who have been handicapped because of their gender and race respectively. The wisdom goes something like this: because Democrats desperately want to win this election, voters will choose the candidate with that all important ‘air of electability’, even if they have to vote for someone they don’t ideologically support. Whomever Democratic voters think can beat the Republican nominee will get the most support in Iowa and New Hampshire. Consequently, Hilary and Obama shouldn’t get the nomination the wisdom goes, because their ‘handicaps’ will pose a major obstacle to capturing independents or stealing a Red State or two in the general election, both of which are required to win the electoral college. They can’t win because their ‘handicaps’ compromise that ‘air of electability’. But with the Republican campaigns exhibiting so little vigor and excitement among the conservative base, real progressives have their best chance in years and perhaps for years to come, to capture the White House. Whether one thinks Hilary is a good choice for president or not, it’s clear that her being a woman isn’t nearly the liability the conventional wisdom argues it is. The same goes for Obama and his being black. The election is up for grabs, and the belief held among some ‘realist’ Democrats that Clinton and Obama should be immediately disqualified ignores the fact that, as yet, there’s no tactical reason to jump to another insipid and ostensibly ‘safe’ candidate like John Kerry. Maybe progressives should roll the dice. With their enemies hobbled by mediocrity, there’s no better strategic time than now.